Overview of Today’s MLB Betting Slate
Today’s MLB betting slate offers a variety of intriguing matchups and betting opportunities. With several high-profile games and promising young talents on the mound, bettors have plenty of options to consider. This article will provide a detailed look at some of the best MLB prop bets and predictions for today’s games, ensuring you have the information needed to make informed wagers.
Play 1: Cole Ragans Over 18.5 Outs (+108) FanDuel
Cole Ragans of the Kansas City Royals faces the Miami Marlins at 8:10 PM ET. The Marlins have struggled against left-handed pitching, ranking poorly in several metrics such as wRC+, wOBA, wRAA, ISO rate, OPS, slugging, and on-base percentage. They also have the fourth-worst batting average against lefties and the lowest walk rate. Ragans has been excellent all year, particularly against right-handed hitters, which is significant as the Marlins’ lineup predominantly consists of right-handed batters who struggle against lefties. Ragans has pitched into the seventh inning in five of his sixteen starts this season, with four of those instances occurring in his last ten games. This makes the over 18.5 outs prop bet a strong play.
Play 2: Tyler Stephenson to Hit a Home Run (+440) BetRivers
Tyler Stephenson of the Cincinnati Reds is set to face the Pittsburgh Pirates at 7:10 PM ET. The game takes place at Great American Ballpark, known for being a hitter’s park with favorable weather conditions for home runs. Pirates pitcher Bailey Falter allows high barrel rates (9.5%), hard-hit rates (42%), and fly-ball rates (43.9%). Stephenson hits significantly better against left-handed pitchers like Falter, with an ISO rate of .213 against LHP compared to .129 against RHP. His hard-hit rate increases from 30% against RHP to 40% against LHP, and his fly-ball rate nearly doubles from 25% to 45.5%. Although Stephenson hasn’t hit a home run since June 3rd, the conditions and matchup make this a compelling bet.
Play 3: Patrick Corbin Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140) FanDuel
Patrick Corbin of the Washington Nationals faces the San Diego Padres. Despite a recent performance where Corbin had seven strikeouts in one game, he averages only about 3.7 strikeouts per game. Corbin ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB for strikeout metrics, including K/9 ratio, strikeout rate, swinging strike rate, and Called Strike + Whiff Rate. The Padres are one of the least frequent strikeout teams in MLB, with a low strikeout rate against left-handed pitching (17.9% on the season; dropped to 16.5% over the last month). Only one batter in the Padres’ lineup strikes out at an “awful” rate as defined by FanGraphs. This makes the under 3.5 strikeouts prop bet a solid choice.
Highlighted Matchup: Phillies vs. Tigers (6:40 PM ET)
The Philadelphia Phillies take on the Detroit Tigers in a game that has been extensively analyzed using simulations and machine learning. The recommended run line play is on the Tigers +1.5 at -156 odds, providing an edge of 2.7%. Additionally, the Tigers’ moneyline at +110 is suggested, offering a compelling 2.6% edge. These bets are based on the Tigers’ recent performance and the Phillies’ current form.
Additional Bet Recommendation: Mariners vs. Rays Over/Under Bet
In the matchup between the Seattle Mariners and the Tampa Bay Rays, the over 7.5 runs bet at -104 odds is recommended. This bet indicates a favorable 3.1% edge, considering the offensive capabilities of both teams and the pitching matchups.
Expert Picks Based on Odds from Top Betting Sites
Several expert picks for today’s games are based on odds from top betting sites. For example, Trea Turner of the Phillies is expected to go over 1.5 total bases against the Tigers. Turner’s favorable matchup against Casey Mize and his strong performance against four-seamers and sliders make this a high-confidence bet. Similarly, Randy Arozarena of the Rays is predicted to go under 0.5 total bases against the Mariners, given his struggles this season and the pitching strengths of Bryan Woo.
Conclusion and Responsible Gambling Advice
Today’s MLB betting slate offers numerous opportunities for bettors to capitalize on favorable matchups and player performances. From Cole Ragans’ strong outing potential to Tyler Stephenson’s home run chances, these picks provide a comprehensive guide for today’s bets. As always, it’s important to gamble responsibly and seek help if needed. For those looking to dive deeper into MLB betting, consider joining subscription services like Dimers Pro for access to customizable filters and sorting options.
By staying informed and making data-driven decisions, bettors can enhance their chances of success in today’s MLB games.
