How do you say chaos in Dutch? As of today the Netherlands’ online gaming and betting market is regulated, with 10 operators having received licenses, including bet365, Tombola and Holland Casino. But the advent of a regulated regime was the cause of a flurry of announcements yesterday, and much confusion.
Timeline:
- 8:39 am – Entain announces Netherlands exit
- 11 am – Betsson announces Netherlands exit
- 11:13 am – LeoVegas announces Netherlands exit
- 12.03 pm – Kambi announces partnership with BetEnt for the Netherlands
- 1:05 pm – EGR reports that Kindred would continue to operate in the Netherlands
- 10 pm – Kindred announces ‘temporary’ Netherlands exit
Reverse ferret: It was the stance taken by Kindred (likely the largest operator in the space) that bemused market observers. After a day of speculation and the aforementioned EGR story, the company announced at 10 pm UK time it had taken the decision “to cease any services towards Dutch citizens as of today on a temporary basis.”
Calculating the cost of Nexit: It will take time for the reputational costs to become clear (Kindred can only hope that US regulators were too busy preparing for G2E to notice), but the financial impact is clear. Possibly attempting to underplay that impact, the four exiting companies all expressed the damage to profits in monthly numbers. Hence, Kindred said it would lose £12m in monthly EBITDA, Entain said it would cost £5m and Betsson SEK25m, while LeoVegas said it was worth “low-to-mid single-digit” share of total revenues in “recent quarters.”
Back-of-a-napkin calculations: We’ve rounded this up for you – there are caveats about current run rates here but this at least gives a guide:
- Entain ~£60m in EBITDA or c.7.1% of 2020 EBITDA of £843m,
- Betsson ~SEK300m in EBIT or c. 27% of 2020 operating income of SEK1.13bn,
- Kindred ~£144m in EBITDA or c.52% of group EBITDA for 2020 of £274.2m.
A rocky re-entry: It is doubtful Kindred’s actions yesterday will have done it any favors in the eyes of the regulator, which has so far rejected 19 of the 29 applicants for a license. Speaking at this week’s Gaming in Holland event, KSA chair René Jansen said the body “encountered a substantial number of flaws in the license applications” and urged future license applicants to be “very well prepared”.