The New York nine
Winners: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Bally Bet, Caesars, Rush Street Interactive, WynnBet, PointsBet, Resorts World
Losers: Penn National Gaming/Barstool, Fox Bet, Fanatics
Just a New York conversation: The nine winners of the New York bidding process were quick to celebrate their newly-won right to hand over a lot of tax money to the state (51% tax rate). If you accept the premise that access means all, then the big loser is Penn National and Barstool, which now finds itself shut out of the biggest market to regulate mobile-OSB to date. The good news for the winners is the likelihood that the market will be up and running before the Super Bowl.
Billion-dollar baby: Analysts at Jefferies noted the high-stakes of the New York decision, pointing out that it expects NY TAM to hit $1.3bn at maturity. Macquarie produced some back-of-a-napkin calculations to suggest the same, saying that from a GGR perspective, New York “represents one of the most attractive sports-betting states” given its population (~20m), wealth/income, and sports culture. Assuming $60 spend/adult, we estimate New York could generate $1bn+ of sports revs at maturity,” the Macquarie team added.
Talking point: “The downside risk is that other states adopt a similar structure; the upside risk that more US super-states (CA, FL, TX) are encouraged to seek additional tax revenues and legalize mobile sports-betting,” said the analysts at Jefferies.
Square dance: Other winners are New York’s sports team, including the Knicks and the Rangers and owner Madison Square Garden Entertainment. Jonathan Byer, president at Boyer Research, said that both teams are among the most valuable franchises with the NBA and NHL respectively and the approval of OSB “should have a favorable future impact on the valuation of both teams.” Not incidentally, Madison Square Garden Entertainment will also benefit from the potential for a sportsbook located on-premises.
